Sunday, April 08, 2007

Don't Let Lofton's Low Avg Fool You

Before this season, he was a career .300 hitter. Now he hits at the top of a powerful Rangers lineup. Behind him is Hairston, Young, Teixeira, Sosa. Right now his average is very low, .133, but don't let that fool you, he is a very good hitter in fact.

He has a contact rate of 93% with only 1 strikeout. He's putting the bat on the ball, its just not landing in the right spot, and thats unlucky. Because of that, he's not getting on base, which means his runs are down. He's gotten 2 hits and 1 walk, so he's reached base 3 times. He also has 2 steals. Clearly he wants to run and clearly he can. Such a high contact rate tells us his average will definitely go up, and for such a high rate, an average of .300 or well beyond is reasonable. Once he starts getting on base more, we'll see plenty of runs and steals. Its all a matter of time.

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