My Superbowl Prediction Streak

So I'm on a pretty nice superbowl prediction streak.  Its been 2 years in a row I predicted the Superbowl matchup and winner, before the season began.  Here is my evidence, I created each of those topics. For fun I threw in the 05 and 06 Superbowls as well, that I predicted only days before the SB, not before the season, but both were accurate.

Past:
2005 Superbowl: Date posted - 1/30/2006
http://maddendude.blogspot.com/2006/01/superbowl-xl.html

2006 Superbowl: Date posted - 2/6/2007
http://maddendude.blogspot.com/2007/02/superbowl-prediction.html

2012 Superbowl: Date posted - 9/10/2012 
http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/2000205-sports-and-racing-general/64008473

2013 Superbowl: Date Posted - 2/4/2013 
http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/2000211-sports-and-racing-nfl/65364616

Anyways, its time to pick my 2014 season Superbowl winner. I predict it will be San Francisco beating New England.

Patriots --  Most complete team in the AFC when healthy, have a reliable defense when healthy. Belichick will out scheme Manning given servicable talent on defense..which he should have next year. Von Miller isn't going to turn a complete ass of a defense into a decent one. KC doesn't have the testicular fortitude to win the AFC. Indy is too inconsistent although Luck will have a good regular season. Bengals have such a talented team, its a shame they are wasting it with their terrible playcalling. Regardless they'll get beat by KC, Den, or NE. The X-factor teams are Houston, Pitt, and Balt. If Balt can establish their running game better (near last in the league this year), they'll have a winning season. They have talent on defense still. Dunno whats the deal with Ray Rice, I know he was injured. If Rice can get 1700+ overall yards, they'll be a decent offense, Flacco is not bad. Pitt still has too many holes and isn't solid enough to make a legitimate run. Theres ZERO chance the Chargers make the playoffs. If Houston gets Manziel, and Manziel live up to expectations, which I think he can, they'll be a good team, with a similar record to Balt.

Niners -- Its pretty obvious its going to be either the Niners or Seahawks. Cam sucks. he's only good against crappy teams. Kaepernick will make the biggest improvement next year, more than Wilson and Cam. He'll be on par with Wilson, maybe slightly beneath. Both will be better QBs than Cam. They might not put up as many yards and TDs but they'll make more big plays in big games than Cam. No other team is balanced enough to compete. Saints D is overrated, Rob Ryan sucks ass. An improved Kaepernick will be enough for the Niners to beat the Seahawks. They might just lose both regular season games, but they'll win in the playoffs when it matters, doesn't matter where they play. This is the 2nd best defense in the league, in a close 2nd to Seattle. The SF offense has so much potential, it was being held back by an aging Gore and a struggling Kaepernick. I expect them to get fresh legs at RB, perhaps Lattimore can be the next guy, and I expect Kaepernick makes enough progress. Their defense is still severely underrated in the general publics eyes. Top 3 doesn't do them justice. They are clear #2 and carolina is #3. Niners will have the extra hunger and Seattle will have slightly less hunger.

And Niners should beat the Patriots just like 2012 regular season.   Here is my 2014 prediction of what will happen to Kaepernick.

Super Bowl XLVIII Prediction: Seattle Seahawks vs Denver Broncos

One of the biggest things regarding a topic that makes me talk about it is my perception of a team compared to the general publics perception.  Its part of the reason I talk about the Niners, Seahawks, and Broncos so much.  They're the leagues top teams and as such, everyone seems to have an opinion about em.  Since the beginning of the season, I've held on to the belief that the Seahawks fit the superbowl blueprint better than any other team.  Infact, I think I believe they fit the superbowl blue-print better than any team I've seen in recent years.  The Broncos on the other hand are probably the best passing offense we've ever seen.  But best passing offense does not equate to best team, and its going to take a complete team effort to win the superbowl.   Here are the most important things I'm considering for this game:

Seahawks Defense vs Broncos Offense

Pressure on Manning is the key - I think this applies to most teams, but against Manning it will provide the greatest return.  The common theme every time the Broncos have lost or been close to losing is pressure on the QB.  The Broncos O-line did a great job of recognizing the Patriots' blitzes, but at the same time, if you need to send extra guys just to be able to get pressure, Manning will tear it apart.  But the talent of Seattle's defense is on a different planet compared to New England. They have the skills, talent, and speed to beat even the best offensive lines with a 4-man rush. You might not think much of it after the SF game, but a mobile QB changes the pass-rush game. Against a mobile QB, not only is the D-line's job doubled by having to spy the QB, but an extra linebacker needs to be used as a spy.  Against a statue like Manning, the 4-man rush can be much more effective at getting to the QB, and the linebackers' jobs become much simpler.  Combine that with the best defensive backfield in the NFL and its almost certain they will force mistakes.   This is the reason they lead the league in interceptions.   Players like Manning, Brees, Brady, Rodgers can always pick up the blitz and torch you for it. When you have an effective 4-man rush, you essentially leave no glaring holes for these great QBs to exploit.

Broncos Defense vs Seahawks Offense

Shut down the running game and don't give them any big plays over the time.  Those are the 2 keys to beating Seattle.   The engine of the team is Lynch.  As long as Lynch was getting shut down in the Niners game, Seattle struggled to move the ball.  Lynch's TD run was their first touchdown for the seahawks and that really established the run game.  When they pound the running game and the safties start to creep, thats when Seattle hits you with the long-ball.  If the front 7 of Denver can hold strong, and the back 4 and keep everything underneath, Seattle will have to change its gameplan, and thats when they will be backed up on their heels.   Denver had a great pass-rush against NE, but getting to Wilson alone will not win the game.  Wilson can make plays outside the pocket, so when Denver does bring the extra guy, Wilson can buy enough time to burn you.

I think ultimately, while Denver has one of the best passing offenses of all time, they aren't as complete of a team as Seattle.  I think this game will resemble the Colts-Broncos game, where Manning was pressured and made uncomfortable. On the other side I think Wilson's creativity will be enough to put up consistent points on Denver.    This defense is one of the best I've seen in a long time.     I'm picking the Seahawks by 4.

I would also like to note that I'm actually very confident about my pick, and even as a broke-ass student, I'm think I'm going to put down $100 on the Seahawks, which is alot for me.