Monday, April 09, 2007

My Fantasy Baseball Team

Unlike last year, I did research before I drafted. Last year I relief purely on my baseball knowledge and not fantasy baseball knowledge. I went more with big names than with the better fantasy player. This year my researched helped alot. I drafted every single player with something positive that I can look forward to. I acted as if my 21st pick was just as important as my 1st. In reality, its not, but I was researching and comparing stats like it was. This was a traditional head to head, 5x5, 10 man league. I made a few changes after I drafted, I dropped Jacque Jones for Danial Cabrera almost immediately after the draft, and I dropped Chipper Jones for Weathers.

I've never been so confident in a fantasy team before, in any sport. Once Howard and Atkins get it going (Looks like today), my offense will be completely dominating. The one thing I lack is steals. Byrnes had 4 steals this past week, but I don't expect that to continue, I'm projecting 30 steals tops. Upton is also running this year, I'm expecting around 30 steals from him as well. Delmon Young could also give me a solid number of steals, around 20.

My pitching is strong as well. Sheets could be great, he looks to be completely healthy. Just about all my pitchers have high potentials. 5 of them have 200k potential. My closers aren't great but they're sufficient. Jenks and Isringhausen will be consistant, hopefully so will Weathers. Dempster has been very good so far. But if he blows more than one save, his time will be extremely short.

I'm trying to pick up Kenny Lofton, but I can't figure out who to cut.

C: Jorge Posada

1B: Ryan Howard
2B: Josh Barfield
3B: Garrett Atkins
SS: Miguel Tejada
OF: Vladimir Guerrero
OF: Delmon Young
OF: Eric Byrnes
Util: Todd Helton
BN: B.J. Upton

SP: Ben Sheets
SP: John Smoltz
RP: Bobby Jenks
RP: Jason Isringhausen
P: Ryan Dempster
P: David Weathers
P: C.C. Sabathia
BN: Bronson Arroyo
BN: Justin Verlander
BN: Aaron Harang
BN: Daniel Cabrera

Sunday, April 08, 2007

Don't Let Lofton's Low Avg Fool You

Before this season, he was a career .300 hitter. Now he hits at the top of a powerful Rangers lineup. Behind him is Hairston, Young, Teixeira, Sosa. Right now his average is very low, .133, but don't let that fool you, he is a very good hitter in fact.

He has a contact rate of 93% with only 1 strikeout. He's putting the bat on the ball, its just not landing in the right spot, and thats unlucky. Because of that, he's not getting on base, which means his runs are down. He's gotten 2 hits and 1 walk, so he's reached base 3 times. He also has 2 steals. Clearly he wants to run and clearly he can. Such a high contact rate tells us his average will definitely go up, and for such a high rate, an average of .300 or well beyond is reasonable. Once he starts getting on base more, we'll see plenty of runs and steals. Its all a matter of time.

Sunday, April 01, 2007

High Strikeout Pitchers

Thanks to Doug's MLB Stats, I can rank players and compile stats in any way imaginable. The first thing that I wanted to know was who the best strikeout pitchers are in the league. Pure strikeouts can't tell you much because the innings pitched are all different. I compiled Strikeouts per Innings pitched, here are the ranks that I got:

From that list, Kazmir and Hamels are availible in the mid-rounds. Cabrera is availible way in the late rounds, if he doesn't go undrafted. We all know they are high strikeout guys, but just how high, might be overlooked. (Note: This only applies to pitchers with over 100 innings pitched, this is to exclude the relievers)

Next, I did K per Walk. Sheets was by far the best with a ratio of 10.54. The next closest was Schilling with a ratio of 6.53. Then Johan with a ratio of 5.2. This can be a good indicator of control that the pitcher has. It can tell you whether that player's ERA and Whip are inflated or deflated by other factors. Clearly Schilling is overlooked in this aspect. Sheets still has an injury risk. Another Note, Wickman was the only pitcher better than Sheets with a ratio of 12.5, but thats only with his tenure with the Braves. With the Braves he was a complete beast. Infact, he also has the best Save per Blown save ratio.

This stat sheet is very fun to play around with. If anyone has any numbers/ranks they want to compile, just leave a comment and I'll have it done by the next day. I can do hitters and pitchers.